CI 4 Working Capital and Liquidity
This module deals with the short-term side of the balance sheet: the assets and liabilities that turn into cash inflows or outflows within a year. Their behavior is driven mainly by the payment and delivery terms an issuer agrees with its customers and its suppliers. These accounts matter because they largely decide whether a firm can generate cash for its investors, and because a mismatch between when assets convert to cash and when liabilities come due can prove fatal even to a profitable company. For that reason analysts study an issuer’s cash conversion and liquidity closely.
The operating cycle
For a manufacturer that produces and sells physical goods, operations run through a sequence: buy materials, build inventory, sell the goods on credit, and finally collect cash. That sequence is the operating cycle, and it may repeat once or many times a year. The cash flows attached to each step rarely land at the same moment as the step itself. Materials are received now but paid for weeks later; goods are shipped now but the cash arrives later; and some inventory takes a long time to become saleable, as with aged spirits such as whiskey that mature for years before sale.
Future inflows inside the operating cycle sit on the balance sheet as short-term assets, and future outflows sit there as short-term liabilities. Each account is recognized when its underlying activity occurs and is removed when the related cash actually moves.
| Account | Meaning | Recognized when | Removed when |
|---|---|---|---|
| Accounts receivable | Amounts owed by customers for goods or services sold | Product or service is sold to a customer on credit | Cash is received from the customer |
| Inventory | Cost of products produced or bought for resale | The issuer takes ownership of materials or goods | Product is sold to a customer |
| Accounts payable | Amounts owed to suppliers for goods or services received | Product or service is received and payment is deferred | Cash is paid to the supplier |
Defining the cash conversion cycle
The average time each account stays on the books has a name: days payable outstanding (DPO) for payables, days of inventory on hand (DOH) for inventory, and days sales outstanding (DSO) for receivables. The exact activity-ratio formulas for these come later in the curriculum. The quantity analysts care about here is the cash conversion cycle: the gap between the day an issuer pays its suppliers and the day it collects from its customers, that is, the time between removing a payable and removing the matching receivable.
The cash conversion cycle counts the days it takes to turn an inventory investment back into cash from customers. A longer cycle means a firm must finance its bills, such as payroll, for longer before the cash comes in. In 2020 the average US-listed company ran a cycle of 78 days, but the spread across industries was wide. Pharmaceutical makers carry heavy inventories and so run long cycles; airlines, a service with almost no goods inventory and mostly prepaid fares, run very short ones.
| Industry | Average cycle |
|---|---|
| Pharmaceuticals | 180 |
| Apparel Retail | 123 |
| Semiconductors | 121 |
| All companies | 78 |
| Auto and Auto Parts | 66 |
| Oil and Gas | 61 |
| Software | 40 |
| Media | 22 |
| Airlines | 12 |
Source: JPMorgan Working Capital Index 2021, authors’ analysis.
The ideal is a short, or even negative, cycle, because cash tied up in inventory is quickly freed for reuse. A negative cycle arises when customers pay before suppliers are paid, which throws off spare cash and cuts the need for outside financing. The apparel group Inditex, whose largest brand is ZARA, is the classic case: a vertically integrated supply chain, limited runs of fast-turning stock, off-the-rack sales settled instantly in cash or card, and heavy bargaining power over a large base of suppliers together produce a deeply negative cycle.
| 2021 | 2020 | |
|---|---|---|
| Accounts receivable | 842 | 715 |
| Inventories | 3,042 | 2,321 |
| Accounts payable | 6,199 | 4,659 |
| Sales | 27,716 | 20,402 |
| Cost of goods sold | 11,902 | 9,013 |
| Days sales outstanding | 11 | 13 |
| Days of inventory on hand | 93 | 94 |
| Days payable outstanding | 190 | 189 |
| Cash conversion cycle | −86 | −82 |
| Net working capital | −2,315 | −1,623 |
| Net working capital as % of sales | −8.4% | −8.0% |
Shortening the cycle
An issuer can compress its cash conversion cycle along three levers:
- Cut days of inventory on hand by dropping low-demand or niche lines, arranging more frequent just-in-time deliveries, and sharpening demand forecasts with data analytics.
- Cut days sales outstanding by giving prompt-payment discounts, charging late fees, tightening credit standards, requiring upfront deposits, and using collection agencies.
- Raise days payable outstanding by negotiating longer supplier terms, often as a preferred buyer purchasing in volume. This may cost higher prices or deposits, and it depends heavily on the balance of power: a sole-source supplier that sells to many buyers gives a firm little leverage.
The cost of forgoing a prompt-payment discount
Stretching payables helps the cycle, but suppliers often reward early payment. A common term such as 2/10, net 30 means the full amount is due in 30 days, yet a 2 percent discount applies if payment arrives within 10 days. A firm that forgoes the discount and pays on day 30 is in effect borrowing from the supplier for 30 minus 10, that is 20 days, at a price equal to the discount given up. To compare that implicit loan against a real one, express the forgone discount as an effective annual rate.
Keown Corporation makes custom paddleboards in Canada and sells only through its website. Its supplier offers terms of 2/10, net 30. Keown lacks the cash to pay within 10 days, so its CFO must choose between borrowing from the bank at an effective annual rate of 7.7 percent to capture the discount, or simply paying on day 30 and forgoing it.
Activity ratios for five large US discount retailers for the 2021 calendar year are shown below.
| Walmart | Target | Costco | TJX | Ross | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Days sales outstanding | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 2 |
| Days of inventory on hand | 48 | 68 | 29 | 63 | 61 |
| Days payable outstanding | 47 | 75 | 34 | 47 | 63 |
Working capital and its link to the cycle
A second efficiency gauge is the amount of working capital a firm ties up, usually stated relative to sales so it can be compared over time and across firms. Total working capital is the broad measure; net working capital strips out accounts that relate less to operations, namely cash, marketable securities, and short-term debt.
Consider Licht Vernieuwend N.V. at 31 December 20X2. Total working capital equals current assets of EUR335 million minus current liabilities of EUR220 million, which gives EUR115 million. Net working capital excludes cash, marketable securities, and the short-term bank loan, giving EUR225 million less EUR160 million, or EUR65 million.
| Item | Total working capital view | Net working capital view |
|---|---|---|
| Cash | 40 | |
| Marketable securities | 70 | |
| Accounts receivable | 85 | 85 |
| Inventory | 130 | 130 |
| Prepaid accounts | 10 | 10 |
| Current assets | 335 | 225 |
| Accounts payable | 130 | 130 |
| Accrued expenses | 30 | 30 |
| Short-term bank loan | 60 | |
| Current liabilities | 220 | 160 |
| Working capital | 115 | 65 |
The cycle and the working-capital ratio move together. Receivables and inventory are usually the large short-term assets and payables the large short-term liability, so a short cycle pairs with a small working-capital-to-sales ratio, and a long cycle with a large one. Inditex, for instance, runs not only a negative cycle but negative net working capital, roughly −8 percent of sales in both years shown above.
A large working-capital-to-sales ratio sometimes reflects the nature of the business rather than poor management. Spirits producers must age inventory for years before sale, and pharmaceutical firms hold large stocks, at times to satisfy regulation. Outside such cases of necessity or compliance, a firm is usually better off holding less working capital and redirecting the freed capital to higher-return projects or back to investors.
An issuer with limited cash is comparing three suppliers’ credit terms and wants the one with the lowest implicit cost.
An issuer reports the following balances: cash 100; marketable securities 20; accounts receivable 600; inventory 800; prepaid expenses 30; accounts payable 980; accrued expenses 70; short-term debt 1,000.
For a single item, liquidity is its nearness to cash or to settlement. Cash is already cash and so is the most liquid asset, while inventory can take a long time to sell and collect and is therefore less liquid. On the liability side, a payable owed to a supplier within five days is more liquid than next month’s lease payment. Issuers list balance-sheet items in descending order of liquidity, and anything not expected to convert or settle within 12 months sits among long-term assets and liabilities.
For a firm as a whole, liquidity means the ability to meet short-term liabilities, and it turns on how large and how liquid its short-term assets and liabilities are, which themselves follow from the business model and cash conversion cycle. A firm with 100 in cash against 20 of short-term liabilities is comfortably liquid; reverse those figures, 20 in cash against 100 of liabilities, and it must reach for other sources to pay what is due.
Primary sources of liquidity
Primary sources are the most readily available cash and normally do not disrupt operations:
- Cash and marketable securities on hand: money in bank accounts, or securities that can be sold quickly without a material loss in value.
- Borrowing from banks, from bondholders, or from suppliers via trade credit. This raises cash but creates an obligation to repay later.
- Cash flow from the business, which takes time to build but is a large source for profitable firms. A firm expecting to generate 100 of operating cash over six months can meet a 40 liability due then without touching cash on hand or borrowing. Early-stage or loss-making firms may not generate enough.
Because operating cash flow is the primary long-term source, analysts track the statement of cash flows. Cash flow from operations measures the cash profit of the core business over a period: cash collected from customers, plus interest and dividends earned on investments, less the cash paid to staff and suppliers, less taxes, and less interest owed to lenders. It ignores capital investment, so analysts also compute free cash flow.
Secondary sources of liquidity
Secondary sources raise cash at a higher cost and often signal deteriorating health, since they disadvantage existing debt or equity holders, employees, and other stakeholders. They include:
- Suspending or cutting dividends to shareholders.
- Delaying or reducing capital expenditure, which preserves near-term cash but may forfeit opportunities and long-term value.
- Issuing equity, publicly or privately, which brings cash but dilutes existing owners.
- Reworking contract terms, for instance refinancing short-term debt into long-term, easing interest, rent, or lease conditions, restructuring covenants, or renegotiating customer and supplier terms.
- Selling assets, depending on how far short-term or long-term assets can be liquidated without heavy loss.
- Filing for bankruptcy protection and reorganization to keep operating while debts are restructured and assets possibly sold.
Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, airlines leaned on such sources as revenue collapsed: Lufthansa took in EUR600 million from a convertible bond, Singapore Airlines gathered SGD 8.8 billion in a rights issue, and Delta Airlines pushed back USD500 million of capital expenditure.
Keown Corporation is in a liquidity crisis and has identified four ways to raise funds. Each asset carries a liquidation cost, covering fees, commissions, and any discount to value forced by illiquidity.
| Source of funds | Fair value (CAD m) | Liquidation cost % | Liquidation cost (CAD m) | Net proceeds (CAD m) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sell short-term marketable securities | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| Sell select inventories and receivables | 20 | 10 | 2 | 18 |
| Sell excess real estate property | 50 | 15 | 7.5 | 42.5 |
| Sell a subsidiary of the firm | 30 | 20 | 6 | 24 |
| Total | 110 | 15.5 | 94.5 |
Drags and pulls on liquidity
Two negative forces act on liquidity. A drag arises when cash inflows lag, leaving a shortfall. A pull arises when cash outflows speed up, or when access to trade credit is cut, so a firm must spend before its sales proceeds arrive. Major drags on receipts include:
- Uncollected receivables: the longer they stay outstanding, the higher the chance of non-collection.
- Obsolete inventory: finished goods held a long time may no longer sell, or sell only at a discount.
- Borrowing constraints: when credit tightens, short-term debt turns costly or unavailable.
Stricter credit and collection can ease drags, but they may also cut sales if customers will not buy on cash-only terms. Major pulls on liquidity include:
- Making payments early with no benefit, which gives up the use of funds; good practice is to avoid early payment.
- Reduced credit limits, which suppliers may impose after a history of late payment.
- Limits on short-term lines of credit, whether government mandated, market related, or firm specific.
- Chronic low liquidity, often from industry conditions or a weak balance sheet, sometimes worsened by an aggressive working-capital stance.
An analyst notes three recent trends at Keown Corporation: a rise in average days sales outstanding; a rise in days of inventory on hand; and higher credit limits granted by its lenders.
Measuring liquidity with ratios
To compare firms of different sizes, analysts use liquidity ratios alongside the activity ratios above. The broadest is the current ratio, current assets divided by current liabilities. Any firm whose total working capital is positive has a current ratio above one, and a higher reading means more liquidity on this all-inclusive measure.
Two narrower measures strip out the less liquid short-term assets. The quick ratio removes inventory, so a value above one means a firm could cover current liabilities without selling inventory, though it would still need to collect every receivable on time. The cash ratio is the most conservative, counting only cash and short-term marketable securities; a value of one or more means all short-term obligations could be met without waiting to sell inventory or collect receivables.
Balance-sheet data for Licht Vernieuwend N.V. for 20X2 and the prior year 20X1 are below.
| 20X2 | 20X1 | |
|---|---|---|
| Cash | 40 | 45 |
| Marketable securities | 70 | 90 |
| Accounts receivable | 85 | 90 |
| Inventory | 130 | 66 |
| Prepaid accounts | 10 | 15 |
| Accounts payable | 130 | 140 |
| Accrued expenses | 30 | 15 |
| Short-term bank loan | 60 | 70 |
The goal when managing working capital and liquidity is to maximize firm value while keeping ready access to the funds needed for daily operations and for obligations to creditors. In practice that usually means shortening the cash conversion cycle, estimating the liquidity actually required, and holding as little excess as prudence allows, so surplus cash can go to higher-return projects or back to shareholders.
What is realistic depends on the business model. Complex manufacturing may hold inventory for weeks or months, while a distributor of simple goods may hold only a few days. Retailers with many outlets and credit sales need more working capital in inventory and receivables, whereas service and software firms, holding no inventory and often paid upfront, need far less.
Permanent versus variable current assets
Firms first set an optimal level of working capital relative to revenue, then forecast future levels from their revenue forecast. They separate permanent current assets, the base level of inventory, staffing, and receivables that stays fairly constant, from variable current assets, the extra inventory and labor needed during a seasonal peak or a growth phase. Along the way, managers weigh trade-offs: more inventory guards against shortfalls but raises obsolescence risk, and easier credit terms can lift sales but also raise billing costs and delinquencies.
Three approaches to working capital
Firms differ both in how large a current-asset position they carry and in how they finance it. Three broad stances range from the costliest to the cheapest for a given level of sales.
| Approach | Short-term asset position vs sales | Financing emphasis | Main trade-off |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | Larger | More long-term debt and equity | Most flexibility, highest cost |
| Moderate (matched) | Moderate | Long-term for permanent needs, short-term for variable needs | Balanced cost and risk |
| Aggressive | Smaller | More short-term liabilities | Lowest cost, highest rollover risk |
A conservative approach holds more cash, receivables, and inventory relative to sales and funds them with more permanent capital. Stable financing avoids the rollover risk of short-term debt and gives certainty of funds, but long-term debt carries a higher rate, equity is costly, and permanent financing removes the option to borrow only as needed. Early-growth firms with limited access to short-term debt often lean this way, as do established, high-margin firms that can pass the cost on. Other motives include a wish to avoid capital markets during stress, an expectation of flat to rising rates, and a wish for stable cash flow rather than the rollover risk of short-term debt.
An aggressive approach minimizes excess cash, receivables, and inventory and relies more on short-term funding for variable and even some permanent needs. It trades short-term flexibility for higher investor returns: financing cost is lower and borrowing can flex with need, but interest expense can swing with short-term rates and rollover risk raises bankruptcy risk in a market disruption, as many firms found in 2008 to 2009 and again in early 2020. Low-margin firms may adopt it to gain a cost edge, especially when they can forecast cash needs precisely, expect stable or falling rates, and can liquidate inventory and minimize receivables quickly.
A moderate, or matched, approach funds stable permanent needs from long-term financing, and the less predictable seasonal or growth needs from short-term debt. It costs less than the conservative stance and carries less refinancing risk than the aggressive one, and it suits firms that can forecast base current-asset needs well but are less certain about variable needs.
The tie between how a firm sells and its working-capital stance matters to analysts. Extending more credit, or more generous terms, to lift sales also lifts working capital: receivables rise, and delinquencies often rise too, both needing extra financing. The extra cost of monitoring, billing, and chasing collections over a longer period, together with higher borrowing costs, has to be set against the added profit the new strategy is meant to earn.
Liquidity and short-term funding
Even profitable firms can hit trouble by failing to hold enough liquidity for current liabilities. A firm gains flexibility by building a short-term financing strategy and regularly reviewing its options; firms that neglect this face higher costs or, at worst, an inability to borrow at all. A sound strategy for when and how to borrow aims to keep diversified sources of credit so it does not depend on one lender, to secure enough capacity for peak seasonal or growth needs, to confirm that rates and terms stay competitive across different conditions, and to weigh both implicit costs (such as supplier financing) and explicit costs in the effective cost of borrowing.
Several firm characteristics shape short-term funding choices:
- Size: a small private firm may be limited to a single bank line, while very large firms can tap short-term fixed-income markets. Many options carry minimum sizes or fixed costs that price out smaller firms.
- Creditworthiness: it drives whether a loan is approved, at what rate, and with what operating restrictions, since weaker borrowers may face conditions on how they use or sell assets.
- Legal considerations: firms operating in emerging or frontier markets, where legal systems are less developed, may have fewer intermediary or market options and lean more on supplier trade credit.
- Regulatory considerations: heavily regulated industries, utilities or banks among them, may be limited in how much and what type of borrowing they can access, though some, such as financial institutions, reach unique sources like central bank funding.
- Underlying assets: firms with assets such as inventory that work well as collateral can obtain secured short-term funding.
Good planning helps regardless of size or industry. Forecasting cash positions over the cash conversion cycle and beyond reduces the chance of distress in adverse markets, and matching debt maturities to expected cash receipts, while spacing maturities out over time, lowers short-term funding risk.
Keown Corporation has accounts payable of CAD2 million on terms of 2/10, net 30, accounts receivable of CAD2 million, and CAD5 million of marketable securities. It must cover CAD200,000 of payroll in the short term.